IAB’s 2026 Outlook Study, released January 28, 2026, forecasts US connected TV (CTV) ad spend growing 13.8% in 2026, up from 11.4% growth in 2025. For the wider category, IAB projects US digital video ad spend, which includes CTV, to pass $80 billion in 2026. Both figures are forecasts until full-year 2026 actuals are published.
US streaming and CTV ad spend figures at a glance
Streaming TV ad spend means money advertisers pay for ads on TV content delivered over the internet. That covers CTV apps, ad-supported video on demand (AVOD) and free ad-supported channels watched on a television. Each publisher below draws that boundary differently, so the rows measure different things and do not add up to one total.
| Figure | What it measures | Publisher | Release date | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +13.8% | US CTV ad spend growth in 2026 | IAB 2026 Outlook Study | Jan 28, 2026 | Forecast (buyer survey) |
| +11.4% | US CTV ad spend growth in 2025 | IAB 2026 Outlook Study | Jan 28, 2026 | Reported prior-year result |
| Over $80B, +11% | US digital video ad spend in 2026 (CTV, online video and social video) | IAB Digital Video Ad Spend report | May 5, 2026 | Forecast |
| $17.73B vs $16.98B | US CTV upfront ad spend vs primetime linear upfront, 2026 | eMarketer Digital Video Forecast Q2 2026 | Q2 2026 | Forecast |
| $17.2B vs $16.6B | Streaming vs linear primetime upfront ad dollars | Media Dynamics, Inc., via CTAM’s ad-supported streaming stats | 2026 | Reported upfront commitments |
| $19B (2026), $22B (2027) | US CTV ad revenue | MoffettNathanson, via MediaPost’s 2025 forecast coverage | 2025 | Older forecast |
| 16% a year | US AVOD compound annual growth, 2025 to 2028 | MoffettNathanson, via Inside Radio’s report coverage | Sep 30, 2026 | Forecast |
IAB’s CTV growth forecast and what changed in September
The IAB figure is a survey of buyer plans. IAB built its 2026 Outlook Study on responses from more than 200 brand and agency buyers and released it on January 28, 2026. It forecast 9.5% growth in total US ad spend for 2026. By channel, IAB expected CTV to grow 13.8% and social media 14.6%. It also expected linear TV to decline 1.7%, a much smaller drop than the 14.4% contraction IAB reported for linear in 2025. IAB said major cyclical events accelerated the 2026 total. Without them, IAB put underlying growth at 7.1% to 7.8%.
In September 2026, IAB raised its 2026 US ad spend forecast to +12.3% after a strong first half. IAB also moved its linear TV forecast to a 1.5% decline and its social forecast to 16.5% growth. The January 13.8% is the most recent dated IAB CTV growth figure cited on this page.
Digital video, the wider category that includes streaming TV
IAB’s digital video forecast puts US spend above $80 billion in 2026, growing 11% year over year. IAB says that pace is nearly 20% faster than the total ad market. The report was produced with Advertiser Perceptions and Guideline. Part One came out on May 5, 2026, and the full report followed on July 14, 2026, adding buyer views on measurement, transparency and AI.
This is not a streaming TV figure. IAB defines digital video as CTV plus online video plus social video, and social video includes YouTube. Much of the $80 billion is spent on phones and in social feeds, not on television screens. The IAB video release adds two context points. Digital video is expected to exceed 60% of total TV and video ad spend for the first time in 2026. Its growth rate is about half its 2022 peak as the market matures. For the CTV portion on its own, see our breakdown of CTV’s share of total TV ad spend.
Upfront deals: streaming passes primetime linear
Upfronts are the advance commitments advertisers make to networks and streamers before a season starts. They are a slice of the year’s spend, not the whole of it. Two sources show streaming moving past primetime linear in that slice.
The eMarketer Q2 2026 forecast puts US CTV upfront ad spending at $17.73 billion in 2026, against $16.98 billion for primetime linear upfronts. eMarketer calls this the first time CTV will exceed primetime linear in upfronts. Media Dynamics, Inc. counted $17.2 billion of streaming upfront dollars versus $16.6 billion for linear TV. CTAM’s roundup reports that as the first time streaming captured more primetime upfront dollars than linear.
The two pairs point the same way but should not be averaged or merged. eMarketer’s is a forecast labeled CTV. Media Dynamics’ is a count labeled streaming. Their category boundaries are not documented as identical. Upfronts also leave out scatter buys and most self-serve and programmatic spend, which is where smaller advertisers usually buy. For that route, see how programmatic TV buying compares.
MoffettNathanson’s AVOD and total-market view
MoffettNathanson, an equity research firm, models the market instead of surveying buyers. Its September 30, 2026 report, “U.S. Advertising: Rage Against the Machines?”, raised its 2026 forecast for the US ad market to 15% growth and $471.4 billion, up from 14%. Inside Radio’s coverage of the report lists these figures:
- Online advertising at $359.6 billion in 2026, up 20% and 76% of the US total
- AVOD growing at a 16% compound annual rate from 2025 through 2028
- Linear TV, excluding political and Olympics spend, declining 6% a year over the same period
- Digital advertising, including retail media and ad-supported video, up 25% in the second quarter of 2026
The firm’s earlier, 2025 forecast is the source of the dollar CTV figures in the table. As reported by MediaPost, MoffettNathanson expected AVOD streaming to rise 15% to $16.1 billion in 2025. It put CTV at $19 billion in 2026 and $22 billion in 2027, averaging a 16% annual increase over three years. Treat those as the older forecast. The September 2026 report raised the firm’s overall view, and we have not seen an updated CTV dollar figure from it. For the longer outlook, read where ad-supported streaming is heading.
Why streaming ad spend estimates differ
The numbers above disagree mostly because they measure different things. IAB’s outlook reflects what buyers plan to spend. MoffettNathanson and eMarketer build models from company reports and market data. A survey can shift quickly with buyer sentiment, as IAB’s September revision shows. A model moves when reported revenue comes in.
Scope matters just as much. CTV usually means ads on internet-connected TV screens. AVOD can include ad-supported streaming watched on any device. Digital video adds social and online video. Upfront figures cover only advance commitments. A growth rate such as +13.8% also cannot be turned into dollars without knowing the base it applies to, and each publisher uses its own base.
Every 2026 figure here is a forecast. Full-year actuals arrive in 2027, starting with the IAB/PwC internet advertising revenue report for 2026. Viewing data does not settle the question either. Streaming’s growing share of TV time measures audience attention, not how much ad inventory is for sale or who can buy it. See streaming’s share of US TV viewing for the Nielsen figures and what they cover.
What these figures mean for a streaming TV budget
More money chasing CTV inventory means more competition for the same viewers, but none of these totals sets the price any one advertiser pays. Prices depend on the audience, area, timing and buying route. When you get a quote, ask whether the CPM is media cost alone or includes fees, data and creative. Our guide to what a streaming TV ad costs breaks those components down. Plan your measurement before launch, using the steps in our guide to measuring streaming TV results.
Adwave creates ads from your website and runs them across TV, search, social and the web from one prepaid daily budget. Adwave’s pricing lets you set a daily budget from $30 to $10,000, with no subscription or contract. Channel availability depends on that budget:
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Sources, release dates and update note
- IAB, 2026 Outlook Study: US, buyer-survey forecast, released January 28, 2026, with a September 2026 update. The next outlook is normally published early in the year.
- IAB with Advertiser Perceptions and Guideline, 2026 Digital Video Ad Spend & Strategy Report: US, forecast. Part One was released May 5, 2026 and the full report July 14, 2026. The next edition is expected with the 2027 report cycle.
- eMarketer, Digital Video Forecast and Trends Q2 2026: US, forecast, Q2 2026. eMarketer updates its forecasts periodically.
- Media Dynamics, Inc., as reported by CTAM: US upfront commitments, 2026. Expected again after the next upfront season.
- MoffettNathanson, “U.S. Advertising: Rage Against the Machines?”, as reported by Inside Radio: US, forecast, September 30, 2026.
- MoffettNathanson 2025 forecast, as reported by MediaPost: US, older forecast, 2025.
Since the previous edition of this page, IAB has revised its 2026 outlook (total US ad spend to +12.3%, linear TV to -1.5%) and MoffettNathanson has published its September 30 report raising its 2026 market forecast. Figures from earlier periods remain on our Q4 2025 streaming ad spend data page.
