The closest dated figures are retail forecasts and full-year ad estimates. The National Retail Federation forecasts $1.013 trillion in November and December retail sales, up 4.2%.
The IAB expects full-year 2026 US ad spend to rise 12.3%, and estimates digital video at $81.9 billion.
2026 holiday sales forecasts by publisher
These are forecasts of what shoppers will spend. They still set the size of the market your holiday ads compete for. Alongside the NRF’s October 15 holiday forecast, several other publishers released their own numbers this fall.
| Publisher | Release date | Period covered | Scope | Figure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Retail Federation (NRF) | Oct 15, 2026 | Nov 1 to Dec 31 | US retail, excluding auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants | $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% |
| Adobe, reported by Drip | September 2026 | Nov 1 to Dec 31 | US online sales | $275.1 billion, up 6.7%; Cyber Monday $15.1 billion |
| Mastercard Economics Institute (SpendingPulse) | Sep 23, 2026 | Nov 1 to Dec 24 | US retail excluding autos and gas, in-store and online | Up 5.5% |
| Visa Business and Economic Insights | Nov 5, 2026 | November and December | US holiday retail sales | Up 4.5% |
| Circana Holiday Purchase Intentions Study | Oct 8, 2026 | Fourth quarter | US, survey of 3,534 consumers | Down 1% to up 2.5%; average planned spend $779, versus $796 last year |
| Forrester, cited by Digital Remedy | October 2026 | Holiday season | US retail | $1.1 trillion, up 5.1%; ecommerce up 11.6% |
| Bain & Company holiday outlook | 2026 | Holiday season | US, in-store plus nonstore | About $1,016 billion forecast (roughly $695 billion in-store, $321 billion nonstore) |
| EMARKETER February forecast | February 2026 | Holiday season | US retail and ecommerce | Retail up about 2.6%, ecommerce up about 6.6% |
The totals differ mainly because each publisher draws the season and the category list differently. Mastercard stops on December 24 while NRF runs to December 31. Circana covers the full fourth quarter, and NRF leaves out restaurants, gas and car dealers, while Adobe counts only online sales. EMARKETER’s figure is from February, months older than the rest. Read each number against its own definition. Don’t average them into one consensus figure.
Full-year 2026 ad spend by channel
Search, social, and TV budgets get planned and reported annually, so the dated channel figures below cover all of 2026, not November and December alone. The table collects the latest US figures, as compiled by Digital Applied from IAB and IAB/PwC reports, plus EMARKETER’s retail media forecast.
| Channel | Figure | Period | Publisher | Release date | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All media, US | Up 12.3% (raised from 9.5% in January) | 2026 | IAB Outlook Study, survey of 200+ brand and agency buyers | Sep 10, 2026 | Forecast |
| US digital video | $81.9 billion, up 11% | 2026 | IAB video report, based on Guideline data | 2026 | Estimate |
| Connected TV (CTV) | $29.3 billion (from $26.5 billion in 2025) | 2026 | IAB video report | 2026 | Estimate |
| Social video, including YouTube | $31.9 billion (from $28.2 billion in 2025) | 2026 | IAB video report | 2026 | Estimate |
| Linear TV | 39% of US TV and video ad spend, with digital video at 61% | 2026 | IAB video report | 2026 | Estimate |
| Retail media | $71.09 billion, up from $60.32 billion in 2025 | 2026 | EMARKETER retail media forecast | 2026 | Forecast |
| US internet advertising, all formats | $294.6 billion, up 13.9% | 2025 | IAB/PwC Internet Advertising Revenue Report | Apr 16, 2026 | Reported revenue (industry estimate) |
Two things stand out. Social video passed CTV in 2025 and stays ahead in the 2026 estimate, so the sight, sound and motion budget is split across feeds and living-room screens. And the IAB’s all-media forecast rose during the year, which means buyers expected to spend more by September than they did in January. For background on the streaming side, see our explainer on how OTT and streaming ads work.
None of these sources publishes a 2026 holiday-only figure for search. The 2025 IAB/PwC total is the only measured number in the table. Everything else is an estimate or forecast that will be revised. Spend totals also say nothing about price per impression. Our guide to what CPM means for ad costs covers that side.
What advertisers say about holiday TV and CTV budgets
The clearest signals on TV and CTV holiday budgets come from surveys, and each has its own method. Advertiser Perceptions, commissioned by Premion, which Tegna owns, surveyed agency and brand marketers who used streaming TV advertising in both 2025 and 2026, fielding the survey in October 2025. Nearly 70% of CTV advertisers said they expect to raise CTV spending in 2026, by an average of 17%, according to Marketing Dive’s report on the Premion survey.
tvScientific by Pinterest surveyed 487 US marketers in July 2026 for its 2026 Holiday & Seasonal Shopping Trends Report. The survey covered plans running from Labor Day and October Prime Day through Black Friday Cyber Monday and New Year’s. A separate tvScientific playbook aimed at enterprise marketers is quoted by The Agile Brand as finding that 54% of marketers’ seasonal media budgets go to Performance TV and CTV combined. tvScientific sells Performance TV, so treat this as a vendor survey of larger advertisers. It doesn’t describe the whole market.
Both surveys are statements of intent, gathered months before the season. They show where buyers planned to move budget, not what they actually spent once the season played out. For household-level streaming context, see our average streaming spending figures.
Forecasts versus last season’s actuals
Last year’s forecasts ran ahead of the results. A year ago NRF predicted holiday sales growth of 3.7% to 4.2%. The final 2025 figure came in at $972 billion, up 3.1%, short of both the range and the $1 trillion mark, as MarketingCharts’ holiday data hub notes. NRF’s 2026 release confirms the 3.1% result. Adobe’s online number was closer to the mark: it measured 2025 online holiday sales at $257.8 billion, up 6.8%, according to Drip’s roundup of Adobe data.
Read the 2026 forecasts as a range of plausible outcomes rather than a single consensus number. The publishers at the optimistic end, Mastercard at 5.5% and Forrester at 5.1%, and Circana’s range, which includes a decline, are all describing the same season with different models and definitions. Online growth has been the more consistent part of the story in recent years. Set up measuring whether your ads worked before your campaign starts so you have your own number rather than waiting on next year’s reports.
What the numbers mean for a small advertiser’s holiday budget
The data points to an early start. In Circana’s October 2025 survey, 48% of consumers browsed before Thanksgiving and 44% planned to shop earlier overall, as listed in Circana’s guide to preparing for holiday 2026. If your offer runs only on Black Friday weekend, your first impression lands when competition is heaviest. Adobe also forecasts that 57.4% of online holiday spending will happen on mobile, up from 56.4% in 2025, so check that your landing page and booking or checkout path work on a phone before you pay for traffic.
Growing CTV and video budgets mean more advertisers bidding for the same attention in November and December. That growth doesn’t guarantee you inventory on a given streaming service, and it doesn’t predict your results. What it does suggest is planning creative and budget early, and keeping enough in reserve to stay on air through the last shopping weeks rather than spending everything in one burst. Our guide to planning ads around a seasonal peak covers ramp-up timing in more detail.
On Adwave, a campaign’s daily budget starts at $30 and covers media, ad creation, and management, with no subscription or contract, per Adwave’s pricing page. Channel availability depends on budget. TV, Google (Search included), Facebook, and Instagram run from the $30/day minimum, and TikTok is live and opt-in from about $91/day, which means you have to turn it on and connect a TikTok account. Your audience, creative, and content eligibility also determine what can run, as the Adwave FAQ explains. Card deposits add the processing fee shown at checkout; ACH deposits don’t.
For example, a gift shop that sets $75 a day for 30 active days from mid-November would plan for $2,250 in total. It could preview its ads across TV, social, and search before adding funds, then pause or change the budget as the season unfolds. That’s a planning calculation, not a forecast of results for the campaign. For the campaign itself, use our holiday TV advertising playbook for small businesses.
