February 03, 2026
CTV Advertising in 2026: What to Expect
Table of Contents
U.S. CTV advertising is projected to reach approximately $38 billion in 2026, according to eMarketer's latest forecast, continuing the double-digit growth that has defined the channel for the past five years. The market grew from $33.35 billion in 2025 to an expected $38 billion in 2026, representing roughly 14% year-over-year growth. By 2028, CTV is projected to reach $46.89 billion and surpass traditional TV advertising for the first time in history. For small businesses, this expansion creates unprecedented opportunity to reach audiences on the biggest screen in the house, with targeting precision and budget flexibility that traditional TV never offered.
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$38B
Projected U.S. CTV ad spend (2026)
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14%
Expected year-over-year growth
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2028
Year CTV will surpass traditional TV
What the data shows
The numbers paint a clear picture of CTV's acceleration and linear TV's structural decline.
The 2026 forecast in context
CTV ad spending is projected to grow from $33.35 billion in 2025 to approximately $38 billion in 2026, according to eMarketer. This 14% growth rate, while slightly lower than 2024's 16%, still represents extraordinary expansion for a major advertising channel. For comparison, total U.S. advertising grows at roughly 5-7% annually. CTV is growing at twice that pace or more.
The multi-year trajectory shows sustained momentum:
2024: $28.6 billion (actual)
2025: $33.35 billion (16% growth)
2026: ~$38 billion (14% projected growth)
2027: ~$42 billion (11% projected growth)
2028: $46.89 billion (eMarketer)
2029: ~$51 billion
Even as growth moderates toward 11% annually by 2029, CTV will add nearly $20 billion in U.S. ad dollars over the next four years. The market isn't just growing. It's compounding at rates that dwarf traditional media.
The crossover point
The most significant milestone in the forecast: eMarketer projects CTV ad spending will surpass traditional TV ad spending for the first time in 2028. At that point, CTV is expected to reach $46.89 billion while traditional TV advertising falls to approximately $45 billion.
This crossover represents more than a statistical milestone. It marks the definitive shift of television advertising from broadcast and cable to streaming. Linear TV has already fallen to approximately 12% of global ad spending, according to WARC Media, while CTV is on pace to exceed 40% of video ad spending by 2030.
What's driving the forecast
Several structural factors support continued CTV growth through 2026 and beyond:
Ad-supported tier maturation: Netflix's ad tier revenue exceeded $1.5 billion in 2025 and is expected to double in 2026. Disney+ continues expanding its 157 million ad-supported viewers. Amazon Prime Video's ad tier, launched in January 2024, now reaches the vast majority of Prime subscribers. These platforms are still in early innings of ad monetization.
Viewership momentum: Streaming captured a record 47.5% of all U.S. TV viewing in December 2025, according to Nielsen. Each percentage point of viewing share that shifts from linear to streaming represents billions in advertising opportunity.
Measurement improvements: AI-driven personalization is projected to power 80% of CTV ads by 2027, according to industry forecasts. Better measurement drives advertiser confidence, which drives spend.
Retail media integration: Retail media CTV ad sales are expected to grow from $4.99 billion in 2025 to $10.28 billion by 2028, more than doubling as commerce data connects with TV advertising.
Breaking down the numbers
Understanding the components of the 2026 forecast helps advertisers plan their strategies.
By platform market share
The CTV market remains fragmented, with only three companies expected to capture more than 10% of ad sales in 2026:
YouTube: Nearly 12% market share, approximately $9.21 billion in net CTV ad sales. YouTube continues to dominate as the single largest streaming destination, capturing over 12% of all TV viewing.
Amazon: Over 10% market share through Prime Video (with its massive ad-supported base), Fire TV, Twitch, and Freevee. Amazon's commerce data creates unique attribution advantages for advertisers.
Disney: Over 10% market share combining Hulu (the largest single ad-revenue streaming service at $4 billion+), Disney+ (growing to ~$1.5 billion), and ESPN. The Hulu-Disney+ integration in 2026 could push combined annual ad revenues past $5 billion.
Netflix: The fastest-growing major platform, with ad revenue expected to more than double from $1.5 billion in 2025. Netflix's premium content and 94 million ad-tier users make it increasingly attractive to advertisers.
Others: Peacock, Paramount+, Max, Tubi, Pluto TV, and The Roku Channel divide the remaining market share. FAST services collectively represent the fastest-growing segment.
By ad format
The 2026 forecast encompasses multiple advertising formats:
Standard video ads: 15-30 second spots remain the dominant format, with completion rates exceeding 95% on streaming platforms.
Interactive and shoppable ads: Growing from a small base, with retail media integrations enabling direct purchase from TV ads.
Pause screen ads: Static ads shown when viewers pause content, a native streaming format gaining traction.
AI-personalized creative: Dynamic ads tailored to viewer context, projected to represent 80% of CTV ads by 2027.
By buying method
Programmatic purchasing continues gaining share:
Programmatic guaranteed: ~38% of 2026 spend
Private marketplace (PMP): ~32% of spend
Open exchange: ~18% of spend
Direct/IO: ~12% of spend (declining)
The shift toward programmatic benefits smaller advertisers. When 88% of inventory is available through automated systems, barriers to entry drop dramatically.
Why it matters for your business
The 2026 CTV forecast isn't just an industry statistic. It represents a fundamental shift in how businesses of all sizes can reach customers.
The economics favor small businesses
Traditional TV advertising operated on a simple principle: big reach required big budgets. A local business wanting to advertise on television faced minimum spends of tens of thousands of dollars, plus production costs that could easily add another $50,000 or more. The economics simply didn't work for most small businesses.
CTV changes that equation entirely:
Programmatic buying enables any budget level. The same infrastructure handling $38 billion in spend serves campaigns starting at $50.
Geographic targeting eliminates waste. A local restaurant doesn't pay to reach viewers three states away. A dental practice targets only households in its service area.
AI creative tools eliminate production barriers. What once required $50,000 in production now costs nothing with platforms like Adwave that generate professional commercials from your website.
The growth to $38 billion in 2026 means more inventory becoming available across more platforms at more accessible price points. As the market scales, competition among platforms drives innovation in targeting, measurement, and advertiser tools. Small businesses benefit from infrastructure originally built for enterprise advertisers.
The trust factor
Television remains the most trusted advertising medium among consumers. Viewers expect advertising on TV in ways they don't on social media or display. The premium environment of streaming, with professional content and intentional viewing, creates receptive audiences for brand messages. When a local business appears on the same screen as national brands, it gains implicit credibility.
The timing opportunity
The trajectory toward $38 billion in 2026 means the market is maturing but still growing rapidly. Businesses that establish streaming TV presence now, while inventory is abundant and competition among small advertisers is still developing, will have advantages over latecomers:
Build institutional knowledge through testing
Develop creative assets that resonate
Establish measurement frameworks
Claim share of voice before competitors
How to take advantage of this trend
Acting on the 2026 CTV forecast requires a practical approach, not an overwhelming commitment.
Start with a test campaign
The beauty of CTV advertising is that you don't need to commit significant budget to learn what works:
Test budget: $200-500 for an initial two-week campaign
Geographic targeting: 15-25 mile radius around your business location
Timing: Prime time (6-10 PM) for maximum household reach
Creative: AI-generated from your website or existing assets
Use this test to establish baseline performance data before scaling.
Choose your platform strategy
You have two primary approaches:
Aggregated platforms (recommended for most small businesses): Services like Adwave provide access to 100+ channels through a single campaign. Benefits include simplified buying, combined reach, and low minimums ($50).
Individual platforms: Working directly with Netflix, Hulu, or other services. Typically requires higher minimums and separate campaigns for each platform.
For most small businesses, aggregated access provides simplicity and reach without requiring separate relationships with each streaming service.
Develop streaming-appropriate creative
TV advertising requires video, and quality matters. However, the production barrier has collapsed:
AI creative tools: Generate broadcast-quality 30-second commercials from your existing website or social media assets in minutes. Adwave's platform creates commercials automatically.
Key creative elements: Clear message, compelling offer, memorable call to action. The format matters more than expensive production.
Testing capability: Generate multiple versions, see what resonates, iterate quickly. This agility wasn't possible when each creative required weeks of production time.
Measure what matters
CTV advertising isn't performance marketing in the traditional sense. Don't expect immediate clicks and conversions. Instead, track:
Brand search lift: Are more people Googling your business name?
Direct traffic increases: Website visits during and after campaigns
Customer survey responses: "How did you hear about us?"
Video completion rates: CTV benchmarks show 95%+ completion rates
CTV builds awareness and consideration. Other channels convert that awareness into action.
Scale based on results
Once you have performance data from your test campaign:
Increase budget on creative that resonates
Broaden geographic targeting if initial results warrant
Test additional platforms or dayparts
Layer in complementary channels (social, search)
The 2026 growth in CTV inventory means more opportunity to scale, but smart scaling requires data, not guesswork.
The bigger picture
CTV's rise represents more than a shift in advertising budgets. It signals a fundamental transformation in how Americans consume video and how advertisers reach them.
The end of linear TV dominance
Linear television dominated advertising for 70 years, but that era is definitively ending. According to WARC Media, linear TV has fallen to just 12% of global ad spending. CTV is on pace to exceed 40% of video ad spending by 2030. The crossover isn't a matter of if but when, and for the U.S. market, it's happening in 2028.
The implications extend beyond advertising. Cable networks are restructuring or shutting down. Broadcast networks are pivoting to streaming. Content that once premiered on linear TV now launches on streaming platforms. The viewing habits that sustained traditional TV advertising are not returning.
Measurement and accountability
What makes CTV's growth sustainable is measurement. Unlike linear TV, where advertisers essentially trusted that ads aired to claimed audiences, CTV provides verification at the household and device level. Advertisers know their ads ran. They can track viewership. They can measure downstream impact.
This accountability is driving budget reallocation. CMOs increasingly demand proof that advertising works. CTV provides that proof in ways linear TV never could. As the market matures toward $51 billion by 2029, measurement capabilities will only improve.
Industry applications
The 2026 CTV growth creates specific opportunities across business categories:
Restaurants: Target households during meal-decision hours (5-7 PM) within delivery radius
Home services: Reach homeowners when they're relaxed and thinking about projects (evenings, weekends)
Healthcare: Build trust through the premium TV environment before patients need services
Retail: Use CTV for brand awareness before retargeting on other channels
Real estate: Build name recognition across farm area during prime viewing hours
Professional services: Establish credibility through television presence
Each industry benefits from CTV's combination of broad reach and precise targeting.
What experts are saying
Industry analysts and researchers have noted CTV's transformation of the advertising market.
WARC Media's Global Ad Trends report highlighted that "CTV already accounts for nearly half of viewing hours, fueling billions in ad revenues." The research firm noted that the shift "signals not just changing audiences but also a fundamental rewiring of how ads are bought, measured, and monetized."
eMarketer's analysis emphasized: "CTV becomes TV's growth engine as linear collapses. With US spending expected to balloon in the next few years, the question isn't if brands should shift budgets, it's how fast."
Advertising industry observers have pointed to the democratization effect. As one IAB analysis noted, programmatic buying combined with AI-generated creative has "effectively removed every traditional barrier to TV advertising for small businesses."
Media strategists have noted the importance of timing. Brands that establish streaming TV presence now, while the market is still growing rapidly, will have advantages over latecomers. Building creative assets, understanding what resonates with audiences, and developing measurement frameworks takes time. The advertisers who do that work during the growth phase will be better positioned as the market matures.
Common questions answered
How big will CTV advertising be in 2026?
CTV advertising in the U.S. is projected to reach approximately $38 billion in 2026, representing roughly 14% growth from 2025's $33.35 billion. By 2028, the market is expected to hit $46.89 billion, and by 2029, approximately $51 billion. These projections come from eMarketer analysis.
Is CTV advertising still growing?
Yes, CTV advertising continues growing at double-digit rates, though the pace is moderating as the market matures. Annual growth is expected to cool from approximately 14% in 2026 to around 11% by 2029. Even at these rates, CTV will add nearly $20 billion in ad spend over the next four years. The growth is structural, driven by ongoing cord-cutting and advertiser preference for measurable, targetable TV advertising.
Will CTV replace linear TV advertising?
CTV ad spending is projected to surpass traditional TV advertising by 2028 for the first time. However, linear TV won't disappear entirely. It will continue serving older demographics and live sports audiences, though at declining levels. For most advertisers, the shift to CTV-first strategies is already underway, with linear TV becoming supplementary rather than primary.
What's driving CTV advertising growth?
Several factors drive growth: continued cord-cutting (streaming now captures 47%+ of TV viewing), major streaming services expanding ad tiers (Netflix revenue expected to double in 2026), improved measurement and targeting capabilities, retail media integration ($10 billion projected by 2028), and self-serve platforms making CTV accessible to smaller advertisers.
How can small businesses take advantage of CTV growth?
Small businesses can access CTV advertising through aggregated platforms that provide reach across multiple streaming services without requiring individual platform relationships. Platforms like Adwave enable campaigns starting at $50, with AI-generated creative that eliminates production costs. Geographic targeting ensures local businesses reach relevant audiences without paying for national reach.
What are CTV CPMs in 2026?
CTV CPMs vary by platform and buying method. Average CTV CPM through aggregated platforms ranges from $25-35. Premium inventory on Netflix or Hulu direct can run $40-65. FAST channels typically offer lower CPMs ($15-25). As inventory expands in 2026, competitive pressure may moderate pricing further.
Which streaming platforms have the most CTV ad inventory in 2026?
YouTube commands the largest share with nearly 12% of CTV ad revenues. Amazon (through Prime Video, Fire TV, and Freevee) and Disney (through Hulu, Disney+, and ESPN) each capture over 10%. Netflix is the fastest-growing major platform. The market remains fragmented, arguing for aggregated platforms that provide access to multiple services.
Get started with CTV advertising
The CTV market is expanding to $38 billion in 2026, and small businesses have more opportunity than ever to reach streaming audiences. Whether you're testing TV advertising for the first time or scaling existing campaigns, the infrastructure exists to support your goals.
Adwave makes CTV advertising accessible for any budget, with campaigns starting at just $50. Access 100+ streaming channels including Hulu, Discovery, and Peacock. Target by geography and demographics. AI-powered creative generates broadcast-quality commercials from your website in minutes.
No production budget required. No agency needed. No minimum spend that prices out small businesses.